Who will VG be battling for subs?

[Dyzalott]

LotR Online looks like it will be doing battle with VG atm. Large player base from recent movies just waiting. Close to 110,000 member website.

Posted by Patience Community Manager Turbine, Inc.
The Lord of the Rings Online is currently scheduled for release in 2006.

However no beta information is listed so it may be that this gets pushed back. WoW has an expansion out in July that will be trying to build and retain market share.

I think both WoW and LotR Online are geared to new gamers more so than VG. Alot of the end game players in WoW that I talk to want harder stuff to do now that they have thier feet wet in MMOs, especially those for whom WoW was thier 1st game. It will be interesting to see how many WoW players up thier game to VG for something richer. Also interesting to see if Blizzard is paying attention to thier player base and make the expansion more complex, or stick to what has worked for them and gear the expansion to entry level players.

Having seen a server log count of all of SoE's SWG having roughly 10,000 players across all servers recently we should see SWG shut down *soon* (tm) This combined with EQ and EQ2's troubles in recent months will add to the growing online refugee count of experienced players looking for a new home.

Looking at dev blogs around the net and fan forum posts points to a large number of players desperate for more meaning full and challenging game play. When the media blitz is in full swing and the massses find the people behind EQ are putting forth a new vision I think VG will do very well.
*also posted by me at VG boards.

[Fricka]

D&D Online is going to be a contender as well, though early reports are that it is more like Guild Wars in the sense that you are in instances more often than mingling with the world.

SWG already had server merges but since they are a different genre I don't see them as necessarily being the same sort of competition.

The Lord of the Rings Online has been a strange game to follow... for the subject matter and its alleged impending release in 2006 it sure hasn't had much buzz. I suspect this will change with this year's E3 though.

[korthuran]

If wow doesnt drastically alter the way it does content it's going to have serious customer retention problems. I definately think the next game that is the closest thing to EQ (all of it, despite people not liking these past few years, they did a lot of good stuff, their high end encounter design became very good and original) mixed in with some new improvements will be the game to last.

[Itzena]

If wow doesnt drastically alter the way it does content it's going to have serious customer retention problems.
People have been saying that for a year and a half (almost) now. WoW is still rapidly going up in subscription numbers.

[Krikit]

People have been saying that for a year and a half (almost) now. WoW is still rapidly going up in subscription numbers.

Thats only happening becaue people are coming back for the new content and leaving when there done. since AQ has opened all the lag has been back on the more popular servers, give it a month all those will cancel again. Also consider what options people have currently as far as MMO's.

[Nenjin]

The more I hear from people that tried DDO, the less I think it's going to be a real contender. It's got the 3.5 gaming crowd, that's for sure. It's a near flawless emulation of the 3.5 system. But it doesn't have the community aspects that you find in just about every other MMO. It's not pick up group friendly, it's instanced all the way through except for the hub, and it's generally formatted for small groups of people that play the game concurrently with each other. That's not something that will bring in WoW numbers I think. (Not that much will except Korean based MMOs). I think there is the potential for VG's population to be smaller than DDO's player base...but VG's will be knit like fine steel because the game promotes it. And from there is can only really grow.

[Itzena]

Also consider what options people have currently as far as MMO's.
EQ, EQ2, SWG, PS, MxO, UO, TSO, AO, WW2O, AC, DAoC, Guildwars (sort of), DDO (very soon), FFXI, CoH/CoV, Lineage, Lineage 2, EVE online, M59, Puzzle Pirates, ATITD, SB....

And that's just the ones I can think of, off the top of my head.

[Kolthas]

Don't forget Pirates of The Burning Seas :P
Set to come out next year I do believe.

[Itzena]

BTW, WoW just hit 6 million active subs.

[Faelor]

BTW, WoW just hit 6 million active subs.

Well nonetheless, content > population.