View Full Version : Fantasy Baseball Help!!!!!
03-30-07, 12:32 PM
OK folks, I'm in a baseball team with some college friends. Not only do I not know anything about baseball, I don't really even like it. But I like winning and I really like trophies.
Here's the scoring setup (non-default)
1B - Singles 1 point
2B - Doubles 2 points
3B - Triples 3 points
BB - Walks (Batters) 1 point
HR - Home Runs 4 points
KO - Strikeouts (Batter) -1 point
R - Runs 1 point
RBI - Runs Batted In 1 point
SB - Stolen Bases 2 points
Scoring for Pitching Categories
BBI - Walks Issued (Pitchers) -0.5 points
BS - Blown Saves -5 points
CG - Complete Games 5 points
ER - Earned Runs -1 point
HA - Hits Allowed -0.5 points
INN - Innings 2 points
K - Strikeouts (Pitcher) 1 point
L - Losses -5 points
S - Saves 10 points
W - Wins 10 points
First question: Is there an obvious flaw in this scoring system that I can exploit? I was in a league in which the point setup heavily favored relievers over everything else. If this setup promotes relievers over starters (or the other way around), I'd love to know.
Second question: Draft day is tomorrow. Any complete unknowns that you think are going to have a huge breakout year and I should take in early draft rounds?
You ARE my draft prep!
03-30-07, 12:42 PM
with wins and saves both worth 10 points, it looks like relievers (middle and end) are the way to go.
Complete game win is worth at least:
But if you have the middle and saver from a game that is won, say 1-5 starting pitcher, 6-8 middle reliever and 9th for the save. You would have:
Now, how often will there be a complete game win? How often will 2 relievers combine to get a win/save combo. I think the latter is much much more common like 4 to 1 or more.
Edit to add:
The likelihood of a pitcher who has thrown 2 or more complete games/year over the past few years to throw a complete game this year is also greater than the likelihood of a pitcher who hasn't. i.e. the number of pitcher that you can expect Complete Games (and wins) is pretty limited, maybe 1 per team (averaged across all of the teams) Now, some pitchers will throw alot of complete games, but pitchers who don't, usually don't ever get the chance to throw even one.
Further if you get a reasonable save pitcher, do all you can to get at least 1 starter from that team. if possible a middle reliever/setup pitcher too.
suppose you win a game where your starting pitcher pitches 8 innings and your reliever saves it.
38 points at least
03-30-07, 02:40 PM
Speaking from experience, you should really save prospects for the later rounds. For every Jonathan Papelbon who performs well beyond expectations, there will be two or three Jeremy Hermidas who seemed poised to have a breakout year but fall drastically short of their projected stats.
With that in mind, I don't think there are really many rookies who could make a significant impact on their teams this year, aside from Daisuke and Igawa. If you're looking for bargain talent in the later rounds, look to draft established superstars coming off an injury-shortened season, such as Derrek Lee (1B) and Rich Harden (SP).
I'd also pay attention to players who performed well after the All-Star break but will likely be overlooked in drafts due to their stats for the entire season. A couple Mariners, Richie Sexson (1B) and Adrian Beltre (3B), could certainly fit into that category.
If you still want some rookie names to watch, I'd keep track of Phillip Hughes (SP) of the Yankees and the Royals' Alex Gordon (3B). Though they may not be on their respective opening day rosters, they will probably be brought up early in the season if their MLB counterparts struggle.
As far as scoring goes, I would take off the negative points from losses and blown saves since the walks, hits, and runs allowed are better indicators of how well a pitcher performs. I would also suggest getting rid of the negative points for strikeouts. I think that penalty would be too harsh on power hitters like Adam Dunn and Richie Sexson who strikeout 150+ times per year.
I agree that relievers will probably do you better, especially relievers just behind the closer, in other words, relievers that teams tend to pitch in the 7th and 8th innings with a lead or tied. I do see that a inning is worth 2 points though, so there is something for starters there.
On offense, you want to look at slugging % for hitters(you can find the stat in most places, just not one of those stats that is listed everywhere). Don't worry about high HRs and such, just stick with slug%. And since stolen bases are a thing of the past, if you can get a few of the good base stealers, it looks like you'll be gold as they are worth 2 points.
03-30-07, 06:17 PM
I only got the infoz on the home town 9.
Hitters to watch from the Astros in this order:
Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, Luke Scott, Morgan Ensberg (it's an odd # year)...
Hitters to avoid at all costs from the Astros
Brad Ausmus, Adam Everett, Craig Biggio =*(
Roy Oswalt (starter), Dan Wheeler (relief)
Pitchers to take if you like an insane amount of risk
Brad Lidge, "Magic" Wandy Rodrigez
In modern baseball complete games are a rarity so you can ignore that statistic all together.
The 5 points per save is a huge loophole, but the -5 for blown saves could come back to bite you.
I suggest you pick as many Closers are possible. They are generally brought in when their team is ahead so the blown saves will be far fewer. Since they pitch for one inning they will generally be brought in a lot more often than other relievers as well.
The most accurate way to determine the points a batter will yield per game the following formula: Slugging Percentage x 4 - Strikeouts per 9 innings. Slugging percentage is abbreviated: SLG. and Strikeouts per 9 innings is abbreviated K/9.
With this in mind try to pick batters that bat 1st-4th in the lineup. In addition to getting more at bats per game they are also likely to be the leaders in RBIs and Runs.
Also have a list of highest scoring teams of last year. A player on a high scoring team will receive more runs than a player of equal value on a low scoring team.